NEWS: Major League Baseball and the MLBPA are focusing on a plan backed by federal health officials that could have players in training camps by May and games soon thereafter.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 7, 2020
Details at ESPN on how MLB may return -- and the difficulty in doing so: https://t.co/zDoNa3k4pm
This is how we’ve decided to proceed:
- We will REFUND all membership payments from March 13th - April 12th. This way everyone’s membership is FREE for 1 calendar month & your subscription remains active.
- Projections will continue to be posted on our website.
By April 12th, we will decide whether to repeat the above cycle for another month (if there is still uncertainty with VRS markets), continue as normal (if VRS markets return), or completely shutdown (all memberships cancelled).
STAY SAFE EVERYONE !!
The Global Sports Markets (simulated) projections are an extrapolation of sports' results based on season scoring (for & against) and/or most relevant scoring statistics (while accounting for overall, home/away, and trend analysis) and may be viewed as lines just before the odds' makers adjust them to attract equal action on both sides (as well as factor in other contingencies such as injuries); this sometimes give us potential outliers, and in extreme cases, rare black swans. In summary, all we are projecting (simulating) is which team we may expect to win (the "WIN"), by what margin (the "DIFF"), & the combined score of both the teams (the "SUM").
We post overnight projections almost 30-36 hours before the scheduled start of a game for most events on the Vegas rotation schedule; lines aren't available until about 26 hours before (excluding football). So while our projections are completely independent of the opening lines, our projected plays are dependent on the opening lines - the projected plays are a translation of the projections with respect to the opening lines. And to take it a step further, any plays we post will be dependent on current lines (not opening lines, unless we post an overnight play because the line is available at most reputable books). Plays we post may or may not agree with the projections (due to them being outliers, injury reports, roster changes, and strength of schedule, etc).
The different colours you see on the projections may be summarized as follows: The higher the differential - the more orange the projected point will appear, the lower the differential - the more white the projected point will appear. The higher the sum - the more red the projected point will appear, the lower the sum - the more blue the projected point will appear. The colours aren't an indication of confidence but rather a visual summary of the projections themselves with respect to other games that day. It takes a while to being familiar with them.
An outlier can be very subjective and internally myself and my colleagues do have a lot of discussions, debates, and disagreements about whether or not a certain projected point is an outlier. We identify outliers by hiliting the projected play in black (our projections in these cases do not conform to the metrics and our perception is to fade the projections / projected play in those rare instances - we've done quite well in them). The closer our projections are to the opening lines, the better they are. The further they are, it means we either have an opportunity to take advantage of this difference, or Vegas knows something we don't (Vegas knows !!)
I want to add that there is no such thing as a guaranteed winner. You can have the best team in a league (healthy roster) against the worst team in that same league (lots of injuries) and the worst team can still win outright (even if all the numbers and non-statistical factors point to the best team covering). One reason why this happens is because good teams sometimes relax against these bad teams or the bad teams have bench players playing and they step up their game as it's a rare opportunity for them to really showcase what they have to offer. This obviously doesn't happen all the time but the potential for it to happen exists (and it has happened over and over again). For this reason (and others), please remember to always follow basic bankroll / risk management principles as there is no such thing as a guaranteed winner; never risk more than you are willing to lose without losing any sleep. And while you're at it, make sure you learn a lot and enjoy the journey.