ABOUT THE PROJECTIONS:
The Global Sports Markets (simulated) projections are an extrapolation of sports' results based on season scoring (for & against) and/or most relevant scoring statistics (while accounting for overall, home/away, and trend analysis) and may be viewed as lines just before the odds' makers adjust them to attract equal action on both sides (as well as factor in other contingencies such as injuries); this sometimes give us potential outliers, and in extreme cases, rare black swans. In summary, all we are projecting (simulating) is which team we may expect to win (the "WIN"), by what margin (the "DIFF"), & the combined score of both the teams (the "SUM").
We post overnight projections almost 30-36 hours before the scheduled start of a game for most events on the Vegas rotation schedule; lines aren't available until about 26 hours before (excluding football). So while our projections are completely independent of the opening lines, our projected plays are dependent on the opening lines - the projected plays are a translation of the projections with respect to the opening lines. And to take it a step further, any plays we post will be dependent on current lines (not opening lines, unless we post an overnight play because the line is available at most reputable books). Plays we post may or may not agree with the projections (due to them being outliers, injury reports, roster changes, and strength of schedule, etc).
The different colours you see on the projections may be summarized as follows: The higher the differential - the more orange the projected point will appear, the lower the differential - the more white the projected point will appear. The higher the sum - the more red the projected point will appear, the lower the sum - the more blue the projected point will appear. The colours aren't an indication of confidence but rather a visual summary of the projections themselves with respect to other games that day. It takes a while to being familiar with them.
The Global Sports Markets (simulated) projections are an extrapolation of sports' results based on season scoring (for & against) and/or most relevant scoring statistics (while accounting for overall, home/away, and trend analysis) and may be viewed as lines just before the odds' makers adjust them to attract equal action on both sides (as well as factor in other contingencies such as injuries); this sometimes give us potential outliers, and in extreme cases, rare black swans. In summary, all we are projecting (simulating) is which team we may expect to win (the "WIN"), by what margin (the "DIFF"), & the combined score of both the teams (the "SUM").
We post overnight projections almost 30-36 hours before the scheduled start of a game for most events on the Vegas rotation schedule; lines aren't available until about 26 hours before (excluding football). So while our projections are completely independent of the opening lines, our projected plays are dependent on the opening lines - the projected plays are a translation of the projections with respect to the opening lines. And to take it a step further, any plays we post will be dependent on current lines (not opening lines, unless we post an overnight play because the line is available at most reputable books). Plays we post may or may not agree with the projections (due to them being outliers, injury reports, roster changes, and strength of schedule, etc).
The different colours you see on the projections may be summarized as follows: The higher the differential - the more orange the projected point will appear, the lower the differential - the more white the projected point will appear. The higher the sum - the more red the projected point will appear, the lower the sum - the more blue the projected point will appear. The colours aren't an indication of confidence but rather a visual summary of the projections themselves with respect to other games that day. It takes a while to being familiar with them.
Another way to think of our projections is to think of us as odds' makers where we assign the differential as the spread and the the sum as the total. Vegas and offshore odds' makers (the "professionals") make adjustments to account for non-statistical factors (injuries, motivation, revenge/rivalry, days rest, etc) but most importantly, to set the lines so as to attract equal action on both sides. They have the resources and experience to accomplish this so no matter how good (or bad) our projections are, we will never be able to completely account for every single factor that professional odds' makers use to justify a certain opening line. However, you will notice from time to time that some of our projections are very close to the opening lines and sometimes they are completely out there in left field because Vegas knows knows something we don't know.
An outlier can be very subjective and internally myself and my colleagues do have a lot of discussions, debates, and disagreements about whether or not a certain projected point is an outlier. We identify outliers by hiliting the projected play in black (our projections in these cases do not conform to the metrics and our perception is to fade the projections / projected play in those rare instances - we've done quite well in them). The closer our projections are to the opening lines, the better they are. The further they are, it means we either have an opportunity to take advantage of this difference, or Vegas knows something we don't (Vegas knows !!)
I want to add that there is no such thing as a guaranteed winner. You can have the best team in a league (healthy roster) against the worst team in that same league (lots of injuries) and the worst team can still win outright (even if all the numbers and non-statistical factors point to the best team covering). One reason why this happens is because good teams sometimes relax against these bad teams or the bad teams have bench players playing and they step up their game as it's a rare opportunity for them to really showcase what they have to offer. This obviously doesn't happen all the time but the potential for it to happen exists (and it has happened over and over again). For this reason (and others), please remember to always follow basic bankroll / risk management principles as there is no such thing as a guaranteed winner; never risk more than you are willing to lose without losing any sleep. And while you're at it, make sure you learn a lot and enjoy the journey.
If you have any questions, please contact us at: [email protected]
An outlier can be very subjective and internally myself and my colleagues do have a lot of discussions, debates, and disagreements about whether or not a certain projected point is an outlier. We identify outliers by hiliting the projected play in black (our projections in these cases do not conform to the metrics and our perception is to fade the projections / projected play in those rare instances - we've done quite well in them). The closer our projections are to the opening lines, the better they are. The further they are, it means we either have an opportunity to take advantage of this difference, or Vegas knows something we don't (Vegas knows !!)
I want to add that there is no such thing as a guaranteed winner. You can have the best team in a league (healthy roster) against the worst team in that same league (lots of injuries) and the worst team can still win outright (even if all the numbers and non-statistical factors point to the best team covering). One reason why this happens is because good teams sometimes relax against these bad teams or the bad teams have bench players playing and they step up their game as it's a rare opportunity for them to really showcase what they have to offer. This obviously doesn't happen all the time but the potential for it to happen exists (and it has happened over and over again). For this reason (and others), please remember to always follow basic bankroll / risk management principles as there is no such thing as a guaranteed winner; never risk more than you are willing to lose without losing any sleep. And while you're at it, make sure you learn a lot and enjoy the journey.
If you have any questions, please contact us at: [email protected]
